John Kennedy, can win?

The polls show Sen. Mary Landrieu leading John Kennedy by a large margin and if this was a normal election Mary would win; but this is not a normal election.

The Obama phenomenon and the Katrina effect are working to defeat Landrieu.

The first time Mary ran for the US Senate it was New Orleans and the Ninth Ward that carried her to victory over Woody Jenkins. Hurricane Katrina has displaced much of her New Orleans base vote. This will be Mary’s first election that she cannot count on a large vote from New Orleans to help her win.

This year presidential election is one of the most polarizing elections that America has ever had. Feelings are running high for and against Obama very few are neutral. The record high voter turnout demonstrates the passion the electors have in this election.

Those on the Right of the political spectrum see this election as an attack on long held values. Words such, as “Distribution of Wealth and Socialism” has become the battle cries for the Right. For those on the Right it is not only about the president’s race but it is also about the Congress it is as if Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosie are on the ballot with Barrack Obama.

I have a hard time believing that someone who is voting for John McCain can vote for the Democratic Mary Landrieu.

All of the polling is indicating that John McCain is going to win Louisiana by a large margin. I feel that his coat tails are going to carry John Kennedy.

My Predictions

This is my predictions for next Tuesday Baton Rouge elections.
I hope that my crystal ball is working.

Mayor's Tax proposal
Fails because nothing in it for Central and Zachary.

Judge, Juvenile Court, Elec. Sect. 1A
Gerald T. "Jerry" Arbour, R Overwhelming a Republican district. The "R" behind Arbour name wins the race.

Metro District 2
Handy wins. Too much support from the Mayor.

Metro District 3
Chandler Loupe wins big!

Metro District 5
Edwards wins big 70%+. Put a fork in this race it is over, Edwards is just too organized.

Metro District 6
Toss up. Depends on turn out. Don't count Tassin out.

Metro District 7
Sharper has the edge. Sorry about that folks.

Metro District 10
This is a hard one to call to good candidates both well organized. I have to go with my heart and go with Tara Wicker.

Metro District 11
Cascio by a landslide.

Metro District 12
Benham in a close one. Status-quo is hard to beat.

Ethics Board might have violated law

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/politics/33705954.html

This is great. Governor Jindal's new ethics board in their first meeting totally disregarded Louisiana's "Open Meeting Law" and went into executive session to chat with the nominees to the ethics board.

Is this Jindal's new ethics, that matters are decided in closed meeting to the disregard of Louisiana law.

Ignorance of the law is no excuse. It would appear that lawyers and ex-legislatures would know the laws of Louisiana. I hope that this is not a picture of things to come.

Benham & Bourgeois: Dumb and Dumber!

The runoff for District 12 East Baton Rouge Metro Council is like a bad dream between two candidates Dumb and Dumber aka Jim Benham and Smokie Bourgeois.

This is the second time that these two candidates have met in a runoff for the Metro Council. In the late 90's Councilmen Jim Behham was a one-man crusade trying to ban alcohol in East Baton Rouge. Benham's anti-alcohol policies angered most of the restaurant and bar owners in Baton Rouge. Smokie Bourgeois a local cult hero and the owner of Georges's Restaurant decided to run against Benham in the 2000 election. Bourgeois forced Benham into a runoff. Benham with the help of his fellow council member Lori Burgess won the race by a very small margin.

Now in 2008 Jim Benham only campaign promise is that he is going to rid the South Downs area of Tommy Spinosa Rouzan development. Who knows what Smokie’s platform is, maybe more drinks for everyone?

Benham is not taking any direct contribution nor is he putting his money in the campaing, he is taking in-kind contribution on items like yard signs and push cards. Bourgeios has raised a small amount of money. Both of these campaigns are very low budget.

Unfortunately it does not matter who wins, the real losers in this race are the citizens of the 12th District and the citizens of East Baton Rouge.

HOLDEN & TASSIN

Smiling faces sometimes pretend to be your friend Smiling faces show no traces of the evil that lurks withinSmiling faces, smiling faces sometimes They don't tell the truth uh Smiling faces, smiling facesTell lies and I got proof.

This 1970's song written by Barrett Strong and made famous by the Temptations and latter by the Undisputed Truth sums up the relationship of Mayor Kip Holden and his dear friend Martha Jane Tassin.

Martha Jane Tassin is in a fight for her political life with Donna Collin-Lewis for her 6 District seat on the Baton Rouge Metro Council. Since Mayor Kip Holden was elected Tassin has been one of his strongest allies and the Mayor has made a promise to her that he would help her get re-elected and how important she is on the Metro Council and the Planning Commission.

Tassin demographics have changed radically since 2005 because of Hurricane Katrina and now African Americans are the majority voters in her district. Martha Jane's opponent in the run-off is Donna Collin-Lewis who is a very well connected African American that is closely aligned with Yvonne Dorsey. When Mayor Kip Holden is at white groups such as Good Growth Coalition he talks about how important Martha Jane Tassin is to the city and that it is very important for her to be re-elected. But the facts are that Holden is also helping Lewis and that his number one lieutenant Alfred Williams is running Lewis campaign.

Kip Holden could help Martha by actively campaigning for her but he has chosen only to help her with false words of help. In District 1 Mayor Holden has endorsed Gerald Handy over Bones Addison. In Handy's race the mayor has become very active and very public in his campaigning for Handy. He has sent out letters of endorsement for Handy and he has helped raise money for him. The Mayor has not in any way helped Tassin. His promises to help her have been empty lies. As Kip Holden smiles and reassures Martha of his support he is stabbing her in the back.

Republican like Mike Waker and Mike Futrell should take the advice of Barrett Strong song when dealing with Mayor Kip Holden:

Beware, beware of the handshake that hides the snake I'm telling you beware, beware of the pat on the back It just might hold you back.

I understand that Mayor Kip Holden has promised Mike Walker that he is going to help him become the next mayor pro-tem. Yea, right.

Smiling faces, smiling faces sometimes they don't tell the truth, uh

Smiling faces, smiling faces tell lies and I got proof.

Joe The Plumber at the bat!

To use a baseball analogy last night John McCain was able to dink out a single with a pinch hit by Joe the Plumber (or was it an error by Obama?). John McCain now has a runner on first base but his situation is dire. It is the bottom of the ninth, two outs a base runner on first the home team is down by four runs and the fat lady is warming up her voice. Most of the loyal home fans are walking

towards the gates thinking the game is over.

In the words Yogi Berra, "It ain't over till it over" and "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." but it sure looks bad for John McCain and the home team.

John McCain was able to seize on the error that Obama made with Joe the Plumber. Earlier this week when Barack Obama was in Holland Ohio he had a dialog with a local businessman Joe Wurzelbacher (aka Joe the Plumber). In this dialog Obama was trying to explain to Wurzelbacher why it was good for him to pay higher taxes ( http://www.nypost.com/seven/10152008/news/politics/obama_fires_a_robin_hood_warning_shot_133685.htm)

Obama tells Wurzelbacher that he intends to "spread the wealth around". John Mcain was able to put a face on the Obama tax plan and was able to show how his tax plan hurts ordinary people.

John McCain chances of winning are slim to none but if he can keep relating to ordinary people he might have a chance.

If John MCain wins it will because of Joe the Plumber.

Poll Shows Congressman Cazayoux with 17-Point Lead

http://doncazayoux.org/101308.htm

Cazayoux 46

Cassidy 29

Jackson 9

How accurate are these numbers?

The 6 district has an history for voting repub and will carry John McCain.

In the special election a very weak Woody Jenkins almost won the election and it was the independent candidates that took votes from Jenkins that allowed for Cazayoux to win by a simple majority.

If Jackson can get half of the Baton Rouge Black vote and Cassidy can get the majority of the McCain vote I believe that Cazayoux is defeated.

It is hard for me to believe that someone who is voting for McCain will not vote for Cassidy and it is also hard for me to believe that someone who is voting for Obama won't vote for Jackson.